And the Oscar Goes to...

Like my girl, one Ms. Murphy, I have been to a few movies this past year and am ready to make my predictions for the Oscars known. I have also dragged many of my friends to see several of these films, but I haven't managed to hit them all. So I'm going on my best knee-jerk reaction here, and you'll just have to like it or lump it. Either way, here are my from-the-gut choices:

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
My Choice: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain. Sure, I missed out on seeing three out of the five actors in their Oscar-nominated roles, but from previews, friends' commentary, and previous experience watching these actors perform, I'm willing to say that Heath Ledger surprised me very much with his ability to act at all and take this role to the level it was at. Sure, I've seen 10 Things I Hate About You, but all the great actors have started out in some really terrible movies. And I don't see any of the other actors nominated stretching themselves so far for a role - into someone who is so alien from themselves that the actor is completely unidentifiable.
Who Will Win: Joaquin Pheonix, Walk the Line. Personally, I thought the movie and his acting were only ok, but the powers-that-be seem to have a hard-on for this movie this year, especially the two leads. Probably from all the uber-hype, I often found myself pulled out of the story to watch how Pheonix TRIED to be Cash. Hard as acting may be for me, how hard is it for a half-decent actor to emulate somone famous who has clearly established tics and characteristics?

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
My Choice: Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain. After Donnie Darko, who can not love him? (By the way, Erin, I think he got nominated for "supporting" because he dies in the end, thus not being a lead ALL the way through the movie.) And again, when you're a young straight man in your prime in Hollywood, it must be incredibly difficult to reach inside of yourself and become a gay cowboy in front of millions of people. He and Ledger are incredibly brave for taking this potentially career-damaging movie and jumping into their roles with gusto.
Who Will Win: Matt Dillon, Crash. Don't get me wrong, I loved this movie, but it makes me suspicious when a movie that was released so far away from the end-of-year sweeps is still making such a ruckus in Hollywood. Yeah, it's great they made an ensemble movie that dealt with issues still prevalent in our society today, but I'm tired of the hype and the self-congratulation.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
My Choice: I don't care what all the critics say, Felicity Huffman has my vote, 100%, for Transamerica. She is AMAZING.
Who Will Win: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line. Why? Because everyone loves a cute southern belle who can imitate a well-known cute southern belle.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
My Choice: Really, I haven't seen enough of these movies to make an accurate prediction, but I'll just throw Frances McDormand out there because I'm always rooting for her. She is just an amazing actress.
Who Will Win: Rachel Weisz, Constant Gardener. And I don't know why - maybe it's because she flashes her T&A all over that movie. Which, by the way, I didn't think deserved the hype either. Important story, terrible cinematography, awful sound-editing, banal direction, and dialogue that could have been better.

ANIMATED FEATURE:
My Choice: Wallace and Grommit.
Who Will Win: Wallace and Grommit.

DIRECTING:
My Choice: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain. Because he rocks.
Who Will Win: George Clooney, Syriana. By the way, this movie and Munich totally sucked.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
My Choice: Murderball - all the way. I usually hate documentaries, but this one is absolutely amazing. And that wasn't just the vodka talking.
Who Will Win: March of the Penguins, the surprise documentary hit of the year. I thought it was amazing myself, but do you know the original was in French and gave the penguins voices? French audiences basically laughed it out of the theatre. But you add Morgan Freeman and voila! it's a masterpiece. Now, if you nominated Freeman for the "supporting" Oscar, I might reconsider...

BEST PICTURE:
My Choice: Brokeback Mountain, because it's a strong movie that came out at a time when it wasn't a guaranteed hit. It made me uncomfortable and admit to my own prejudices (I didn't think I had any). Basically, it made me think - which is something that rarely happens with a Hollywood movie these days.
Who Will Win: Crash, because it makes Hollywood cream its pants at the thought. Oooh! Ensemble cast!

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY):
My Choice: Brokeback Mountain, no question about it.
Who Will Win: Brokeback Mountain - this will probably be the only category the Academy sees fit to offer this outstanding movie.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY):
My Choice: The Squid and the Whale, which is probably the most underrated movie on the Academy's list of nominees.
Who Will Win: Why is Crash getting all this buzz? I don't know, but I think it's going to win here too. But that is way better than Syriana, for sure, or that homage to Woody Allen's ego, Match Point.

Well, that's all the opinion I've got for today. Tune in on March 5th to find out if I'm right.